The electoral victory of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) on May 6th, 2021, may open the path for a new vote on Scotland’s independence. In a post-Brexit context, European leaders and pro-European Union (EU) politicians positively perceive an independent Scotland integrated in the Union. While this solves one issue, collaterally it will create a new scenario of political uncertainty in Europe placing the question of self-determination of national minorities at the forefront of the EU’s agenda.
In Catalonia, some political figures perceived the renewed effort for Scotland’s independence as an opportunity for pushing forward its own self-determination demands within the EU. However, a realist analysis of the matter and the interests of the involved actors prescribes more moderate expectations. Catalonia’s strategy in this scenario should not be based on purely ideological and moral premises. Instead, Catalan institutions and political organisations should focus on Catalonia’s national interest and carefully craft a path of action that allows them to take advantage from the triangulation between Scotland, the UK and the EU.
This paper will analyze the future scenario of a hypothetical second independence referendum in Scotland, exploring the interests and possible options for the Scottish government, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Spain and Catalonia.
